Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 1: Development of a concise stratospheric model

A concise model has been developed to analyze uncertainties in stratospheric perturbations, yet uses a minimum of computer time and is complete enough to represent the results of more complex models. The steady state model applies iteration to achieve coupling between interacting species. The species are determined from diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks. Diurnal effects due to chlorine nitrate formation are accounted for by analytic approximation. The model has been used to evaluate steady state perturbations due to injections of chlorine and NO(X)

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 2: Uncertainties due to reaction rates

A concise stratospheric model was used in a Monte-Carlo analysis of the propagation of reaction rate uncertainties through the calculation of an ozone perturbation due to the addition of chlorine. Two thousand Monte-Carlo cases were run with 55 reaction rates being varied. Excellent convergence was obtained in the output distributions because the model is sensitive to the uncertainties in only about 10 reactions. For a 1 ppby chlorine perturbation added to a 1.5 ppby chlorine background, the resultant 1 sigma uncertainty on the ozone perturbation is a factor of 1.69 on the high side and 1.80 on the low side. The corresponding 2 sigma factors are 2.86 and 3.23. Results are also given for the uncertainties, due to reaction rates, in the ambient concentrations of stratospheric species

Search for evidence of trend slow-down in the long-term TOMS/SBUV total ozone data record: the importance of instrument drift uncertainty and fingerprint detection

International audienceWe have developed a merged ozone data (MOD) data set for the period October 1978 through October 2005 combining total ozone measurements (version 8 retrieval) from the TOMS (Nimbus 7, Meteor 3, and Earth Probe) and SBUV/SBUV2 (Nimbus 7, NOAA 9/11/16) series of satellite instruments. We use MOD to search for evidence of ozone recovery in response to the observed leveling off of chlorine compounds in the stratosphere. A crucial step in any time series analysis is the evaluation of uncertainties. In addition to the standard statistical time-series uncertainties, we evaluate the possible instrumental drift uncertainty for the MOD data set. We combine these two sources of uncertainty and apply them to a cumulative sum of residuals (CUSUM) analysis for trend slow-down. For the quasi-global mean between 60° S and 60° N, the apparent slow-down in trend is found to be clearly significant if instrument uncertainties are ignored. When instrument uncertainties are added, the slow-down becomes marginally significant at the 2? level. For the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere (30° to 60° N) the trend slow-down is significant. For the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere (30° to 60° S) it is not significant. The fingerprint of ozone recovery expected from model calculations suggests both northern and southern mid-latitude total ozone levels should recover together. Our result fails this fingerprint test and is therefore not a demonstration of the response of total ozone to the leveling off of chlorine

Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere: An assessment report; processes that control ozone and other climatically important trace gases

The state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere was assessed as of January 1986. The physical, chemical, and radiative processes which control the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone in the atmosphere; the predicted magnitude of ozone perturbations and climate changes for a variety of trace gas scenarios; and the ozone and temperature data used to detect the presence or absence of a long term trend were discussed. This assessment report was written by a small group of NASA scientists, was peer reviewed, and is based primarily on the comprehensive international assessment document entitled Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling Its Present Distribution and Change, to be published as the World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 16

Effect of surface roughness on friction behaviour of steel under boundary lubrication

The friction behaviour of grinded and polished surfaces was evaluated by using a reciprocal sliding tester under lubrication with PAO, PAO + ZnDTP and PAO + ZnDTP + MoDTC. Friction coefficients on the smooth surfaces showed higher values compared to those on the rough surfaces. For lubrication incorporating PAO and PAO + ZnDTP + MoDTC, friction coefficients on both the smoothest and the roughest surfaces decreased with sliding time. On the other hand, friction coefficients between these extremes decreased with sliding time. In this paper, the effects of surface roughness on friction behaviour are discussed

The QBO and interannual variation in total ozone

Garcia and Soloman (1987) have noted that the October monthly mean minimum total ozone amounts south of 30 S were modulated by a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) signal. The precise mechanism behind this effect, however, is unclear. Is the modulation brought about by the circulation-produced QBO signal in the ozone concentration itself, or does the temperature QBO modulate the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), leading to changes in the chemically induced Antarctic spring ozone decline rate. Or is some other phenomenon involved. To investigate the means through which the QBO effect occurs, a series of correlation studies has been made between polar ozone and QBO signal in ozone and temperature

Assessment of possible environmental effects of space shuttle operations

The potential of shuttle operations to contribute to atmospheric pollution is investigated. Presented in this interim report are results of the study to date on rocket exhaust inventory, exhaust interactions, dispersion of the ground cloud, detection and measurement of hydrochloric acid and aluminum oxide, environmental effects of hydrochloric acid and aluminum oxide, stratospheric effects of shuttle effluents, and mesospheric and ionospheric effects of orbiter reentry. The results indicate space shuttle operation will not result in adverse environmental effects if appropriate launch constraints are met

Theoretical modelling and meteorological analysis for the AASE mission

Providing real time constituent data analysis and potential vorticity computations in support of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment (AASE) is discussed. National Meteorological Center (NMC) meteorological data and potential vorticity computations derived from NMC data are projected onto aircraft coordinates and provided to the investigators in real time. Balloon and satellite constituent data are composited into modified Lagrangian mean coordinates. Various measurements are intercompared, trends deduced and reconstructions of constituent fields performed